Posted on Friday, 13 October 2017

Flights between the UK and EU countries could be grounded on 29 March 2019 if the UK crashes out of the European Union with no deal.

That's the admission of the Chancellor Philip Hammond, who said such an eventuality was “theoretically possible”.

Mr Hammond was giving evidence to MPs on the Commons Treasury Committee when he made the remarks. It is the first time a government minister has admitted that air traffic could halt between the UK and the EU if a 'no deal' scenario emerges from Brexit talks.

However, Mr Hammond made it clear that nobody "seriously believes that is where we will get to”.

"Mutual interest," he said, would guarantee that an impasse does not arise as regards air traffic.

“There will be points where it will be necessary to make go to no-go decisions around future programmes to be ready on day one,” he said.

“I am clear we have to be prepared for a no-deal scenario unless and until we have clear evidence that is not where we will end up.

“What I am not proposing to do is allocate funds to departments in advance of the need to spend it. We should look in each area at the last point that spending can begin to ensure we are ready for a day-one ‘no deal' scenario.”

For the last 25 years, all EU air traffic has been managed through a system known as "open skies" - the less officious term for the “EU Internal Market for Aviation”.

So long as there are available slots, any European Union carrier can fly its aircraft between any two European airports.

In the last quarter of a century flights between EU nations have tripled to almost one billion each year. This is largely down to the open skies system, which has enabled budget carriers like Ryanair and EasyJet to enjoy huge growth.

Since there are no World Trade Organisation rules for this type of scenario, a completely new treaty would need to be drawn up between the United Kingdom and the EU. If one isn't in place by the end of the talks, no planes will be permitted to take off or land.

Equally, the Air Transport Agreement between the EU and the USA governs all flights between UK and US airports. A new agreement will be needed if flights are to continue after March 2019.

The notion of the UK's airline industry coming to a standstill in 17 months is not one that industry figures believe will happen.

"Technical possibility"

Speaking to The Independent, Mark Tanzer, chief executive of ABTA, said the grounding of flights is a “theoretical and technical possibility”, but said: “I'm very confident that through the negotiations another structure will be put in place before that ever happens.

“Clearly there are benefits on both sides to be able to fly to and from the UK.”

"Negotiating tactic"

But the suggestion of a halt to air traffic was described as a "negotiating tactic" by Hotelplan's Paul Carter, who believes "the public will be in uproar if this doesn't go through. So I don't think it will happen.”

Post-Brexit world

On the subject, a Thomas Cook spokesperson said, “We are selling holidays for the post-Brexit world, so we are preparing the business to operate in that environment. We do expect some form of agreement on aviation but we now need urgent clarity from government.”

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